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U.S.–Mexico and U.S.–Canada cross-border freight shows mixed trends
U.S.–Mexico
The cross-border freight market between Mexico and the United States is stable. Summer is slow for some manufacturers, so output usually stalls or decreases modestly. As fall starts, plants come back, and we expect automotive and other manufacturing production to increase.
For September, expect freight rates to continue the same trend as August and good truck availability overall.
Manufacturing outlook
Data suggests the automotive industry—one of Mexico’s largest—will continue to produce but at a modest pace. In August, several automakers took advantage of summer vacations to change lines and do maintenance, contributing to the sluggishness of freight demand from this sector around this time of year.
Other industries are picking up the slack. In the first half of this year, manufacturing exports rose 6.24% y/y. Inside that, non-auto manufacturing exports jumped 11.96%, while automotive exports fell 4.04%—the biggest first-half drop since 2020.
Computers are another example of what was illustrated in the August C.H. Robinson Edge Report, that non-auto manufacturing is now driving export growth and is also set to be a main driver of freight and future investment in Mexico.
In the first five months of 2025, the value of U.S. imports of computer equipment from Mexico represented 25.9% of the total imports from Mexico, surpassing the value of automotive exports. Mexican sales of computer equipment to the United States grew 98.2% y/y, while light vehicle sales to the United States fell 4.7% in the same timeframe.
Mexico displaced China as the United States’ main computer supplier last year, and the latest numbers show that the gap has widened sharply in 2025. Without the boom in computers and related components, U.S. imports from Mexico would have fallen around 1.3% y/y in the first half of 2025 instead of rising 6.3% y/y.
In July, the latest official statistics available, Mexico exports grew 4% y/y and exports to the United States similarly grew 3.9% y/y. Manufacturing sub-sectors showing growth were machinery and special equipment at 28.7%, scientific equipment at 10.2%, and electronics at 10.2%. Auto exports to the United States declined 9.2% and those headed to other markets grew 4.9%, creating an overall 7% decline in auto exports.
The newest automakers in Mexico have suffered steeper declines in their exports to the United States, due to the tariffs imposed starting in April 2025 on vehicles that do not comply with U.S.-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement (USMCA) rules and the subsequent 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum.
These plants, opened between 2014 and 2019, have not yet consolidated regional supply chains. Automakers with decades of experience in the country have achieved a stronger North American supply chain and are showing growth. The United States takes nearly 80% of Mexico’s light-vehicle exports, Canada 10.9%.
For additional insights and guidance, see the Automotive section of this report.
Rate outlook
Northbound cross-border door-to-door services have maintained steady rates due to resilient export demand. In contrast, the declining output of the automotive industry is reflected in lower demand for southbound trucks. Fewer parts are heading into Mexico for assembly, complicating trailer repositioning for re-export, resulting in more favorable pricing on southbound loads.
For intra-Mexico loads, demand remains sluggish, and carriers are willing to offer competitive rates to keep trucks on the road and retain top drivers.
Pause of U.S. visas for commercial truck drivers
Effective August 21, 2025, the United States paused issuing work visas to foreign commercial truck drivers. At this time, it does not affect B1 visas used for U.S.-Mexico cross-border runs, so the near-term impact may be limited.
But with the enhanced enforcement of English language proficiency standards and heightened attention on foreign drivers, trucking companies are starting to avoid loads that cross the border late in the afternoon and are not able to deliver that same day. These loads could be in danger of being classified as cabotage—a foreign carrier transporting goods between two points in the United States—affecting flexibility for time-critical supply chains.
For more, see our Government & Regulations report.
U.S.–Canada
The Ontario government has introduced the Protect Ontario Financing Program, a $1 billion initiative designed to help businesses navigate the ongoing economic strain from U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automotive goods.
Given that Ontario is home to nearly half of Canada’s trucking companies and the majority of U.S.-Canada cross-border freight is carried by Canadian carriers, the program could provide timely relief to carriers serving heavily impacted industries. Eligible firms may be able to access financing that supports working capital, helping them sustain operations and retain staff.
At the same time, developments in U.S. immigration policy are creating new uncertainty for some cross-border operations. The United States pausing the issuance of visas for foreign commercial drivers has raised questions in the Canadian trucking industry.
While Canadian citizens holding a commercial license do not require a visa to operate between Canada and the United States, non-citizen drivers working in the United States on temporary permits could face disruptions. This risk is particularly relevant for fleets that employ non-domiciled CDL holders to support cross-border capacity.
The immediate impact on overall freight flows is expected to be limited. However, carriers operating in the United States should prepare for tighter scrutiny at the border and the possibility of isolated delays. As Ontario-based carriers weigh the opportunities for provincial financial support, they will also need to monitor U.S. policy developments closely and adjust cross-border planning to protect service reliability.
Review of USMCA trade agreement is under way
By design, the United States-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA) requires all three governments to review its provisions every six years. This comes next in 2026, which means the first round is already beginning. Each country is submitting positions, identifying areas for revision, and signaling whether they want to extend the pact for another 16 years or reopen negotiations.
Read our blog post on what you should know about the USMCA review, what could change, and the three steps you should take now to get ready.