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Intermodal peak season 2025: planning, capacity, and cost trends
Plan now for merger of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern
The proposed merger of these two railroads—which requires formal review by the U.S. Surface Transportation Board—has the potential to reshape the U.S. freight landscape. If approved, it would create the first U.S. coast-to-coast rail network in today’s system, streamlining long-haul freight movement and potentially prompting broader industry shifts.
While the review process could take up to two years, this is not a time for companies to wait and see. It’s a moment to prepare. Companies should be assessing how they're using intermodal today and what opportunities or gaps would exist should this merger proceed.
C.H. Robinson is the only logistics provider with active access to all the Class I railroads, so we’re uniquely positioned to help shippers navigate this transition.
BNSF and CSX announce new collaborative services
New coast-to-coast direct domestic intermodal services were announced between Southern California and Charlotte, North Carolina, and between Southern California and Jacksonville, Florida. Domestic service has also been added between Phoenix and Atlanta. Direct international intermodal services were announced between Kansas City and the Port of New York and New Jersey and between Kansas City and Norfolk, Virginia.
The Phoenix-Atlanta service was available as of the August 22nd announcement, with the other new services beginning in September.
Navigating peak season 2025
The U.S. intermodal market is entering peak season, with Southern California once again at the center of activity. Outbound volumes from there are climbing ahead of the holidays, and railroads have begun introducing surcharges earlier than usual—a clear signal that they’re managing capacity proactively. These surcharges vary, with some $300 on committed freight and $500 on spot freight. Some surcharges added as much as $1,500.
Import activity has added a layer of volatility, shaped by U.S. tariff shifts and the extension of key trade agreements. While some shippers moved freight forward earlier in the year, others have stuck to traditional shipping timelines. Despite these mixed signals, overall intermodal volumes have held close to last year’s levels.
Pricing trends have diverged by region. West Coast lanes have seen meaningful increases compared to earlier benchmarks, while other regions are experiencing more modest upward pressure consistent with broader expectations. Carriers are also keeping spot rates competitive with truckload, aiming to capture additional market share, and rate stability outside California is likely to hold into 2026.
Despite the heightened activity, service performance has been solid, with metrics tracking close to long-term averages. No systemic container or chassis shortages are anticipated in Los Angeles or elsewhere, though the challenge lies in positioning equipment efficiently to meet demand spikes. In short, the network has capacity, but shippers that plan ahead and remain adaptable will be best positioned to move freight smoothly through the remainder of peak season.
In terms of cost management, careful planning is proving to be the best defense. Aligning forecasts early and staying disciplined with allocations are critical, especially for shippers with committed rail contracts. Weekly resets and in-gating practices can directly influence outcomes. For those relying on the spot market, flexibility can go a long way. Shifting Friday freight to Monday and booking earlier in the week often provides cost advantages, as railroads restock equipment over weekends.